e don’t want to bury the lead: Murray Energy is likely to file for bankruptcy or re-organize and the BDC lenders involved are going to absorb some rather large losses. On September 10, 2019 the Wall Street Journal’s bankruptcy publication reported that the privately-held coal miner had hired Kirkland & Ellis and Evercore to assess restructuring options.
That follows a recent downturn in the short term prospects for the U.S. coal industry, according to Moody’s and as reported by S&P… That’s not to mention the obvious secular decline in the prospects for coal mining and coal usage. Previously in 2019 , the rating groups had downgraded the company’s debt to SD or Selective Default, so the writing has been on the wall.
BDC exposure totals $52.4mn, spread over 6 BDCs. These include publicly traded FS-KKR Capital (FSK) and three sister non-traded BDCs funds (FSIC II, FSIC III and FSIC IV but not – surprisingly – FS Energy). Then there are two others: Cion Investment and Business Development Corporation Of America.The exposure is in two different loans, one which matures in 2021 and the other in 2022. The debt has been on our under-performing list since IVQ 2018 and is currently rated CCR 4 (Worry List), where the chances of an eventual loss are greater than a full recovery.
As of June 2019, the 2021 debt was carried at par but the 2022 debt was discounted by a third. Currently, though, the 2022 debt trades at twice that discount, suggesting holders are not optimistic. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the 2022 debt fully written off once the dust settles, which would result in ($8.5mn) of further losses and ($12.5mn) in Realized Losses, to be absorbed by Cion and BDCA. Less clear is what might happen to the 2021 debt, which still trades at par. We won’t speculate at this point but will point out that – overall – $5.5mn of annual investment income is at risk.
In any case, we expect we’ll be discussing Murray Energy again in the weeks ahead.
On August 20, 2019 Zep Inc., an industrial cleanings product developer, announced the hiring of a new CEO: Dan Smytka.
That’s notable from a BDC standpoint, both because of the substantial exposure to the company ($126.6mn at June 2019) from 6 public and non-traded BDCs and because the business has been under-performing of late. That caused the second lien debt in the latest quarter to be written down by as much as (30%) and first lien debt by (19%), according to Advantage Data‘s records. (As usual there’s much variation in values between BDCs). By comparison, a year ago the debt was valued, in all cases, close to par. We checked the latest prices on Advantage Data for both tranches of debt and found discounts of (25%) and (30%), suggesting the markets have been getting more pessimistic since mid-year.
What’s more, Moody’s downgraded the company to speculative status back in April, including the first lien secured debt. The rating group is concerned about debt to EBITDA that exceeds 10x ! A saving grace is that the earliest debt maturity is 2022.
Clearly Mr Smytka has a big challenge ahead and the BDCs involved – especially three Goldman Sachs funds with the bulk of the exposure – will be watching with great interest if a turnaround can be achieved. With over $12mn of annual investment income at risk, this is one of the largest BDC trouble spots. We have the company on our Worry List or CCR 4.
On August 13, 2019 news reports indicate plus-size women’s clothes retailer Avenue Stores is about to close all its locations. Employees were reportedly told by conference call. Apparently, according to an article in Retail Dive “The New York Post reported earlier in August that Avenue had 60 days to find a buyer or it would have to shut down its 260 stores. (The company’s website currently says it has about 300 stores.) Sourcing Journal also reported the retailer planned to close some stores. In recent months, local media outlets have reported on individual closures. State filings last week confirmed more than 150 layoffs in New Jersey“.
The only BDC exposure through the IQ 2019 was from Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD). The BDC has reported IIQ 2019 results already and there’s no Avenue Stores exposure listed. We don’t know if the BDC sold the investment at a loss or at par in the last few months.
We added a new Seeking Alpha article to the Prairie Provident Company File. The conclusions were not very encouraging, including the following:
The net debt to TTM adjusted funds flow ratio is very high at 14.6x. Also, due to the disastrous Q4, the company is about to breach its financial covenants.
Not good news for the only BDC with exposure: GSBD. However, the current value of the investment is so small – all in equity – as to be immaterial.