e don’t want to bury the lead: Murray Energy is likely to file for bankruptcy or re-organize and the BDC lenders involved are going to absorb some rather large losses. On September 10, 2019 the Wall Street Journal’s bankruptcy publication reported that the privately-held coal miner had hired Kirkland & Ellis and Evercore to assess restructuring options.
That follows a recent downturn in the short term prospects for the U.S. coal industry, according to Moody’s and as reported by S&P… That’s not to mention the obvious secular decline in the prospects for coal mining and coal usage. Previously in 2019 , the rating groups had downgraded the company’s debt to SD or Selective Default, so the writing has been on the wall.
BDC exposure totals $52.4mn, spread over 6 BDCs. These include publicly traded FS-KKR Capital (FSK) and three sister non-traded BDCs funds (FSIC II, FSIC III and FSIC IV but not – surprisingly – FS Energy). Then there are two others: Cion Investment and Business Development Corporation Of America.The exposure is in two different loans, one which matures in 2021 and the other in 2022. The debt has been on our under-performing list since IVQ 2018 and is currently rated CCR 4 (Worry List), where the chances of an eventual loss are greater than a full recovery.
As of June 2019, the 2021 debt was carried at par but the 2022 debt was discounted by a third. Currently, though, the 2022 debt trades at twice that discount, suggesting holders are not optimistic. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the 2022 debt fully written off once the dust settles, which would result in ($8.5mn) of further losses and ($12.5mn) in Realized Losses, to be absorbed by Cion and BDCA. Less clear is what might happen to the 2021 debt, which still trades at par. We won’t speculate at this point but will point out that – overall – $5.5mn of annual investment income is at risk.
In any case, we expect we’ll be discussing Murray Energy again in the weeks ahead.
On June 19, 2019 Moody’s “downgraded Medical Depot Holdings, Inc.’s (d/b/a Drive DeVilbiss – “Drive”) Corporate Family Rating to Caa2 from Caa1. Moody’s also downgraded the company’s Probability of Default Rating to Caa2-PD from Caa1-PD, its first lien credit facilities to Caa2 from Caa1 and its second lien term loan to Ca from Caa3. The outlook is stable“.
The ratings group believes the capital structure of the medical equipment manufacturer is “unsustainable“. Added: “Adjusted debt/EBITDA (based on management’s adjusted EBITDA) exceeded 12 times for the twelve months ended March 31, 2019. At the same time, the company’s liquidity has weakened given sustained negative free cash flow and increased utilization of its revolving credit facility. This is due to the cash costs associated with restructuring activities and weaker operating performance“.
All the above is bad news for the two BDCs with exposure to the company: Bain Capital Specialty Finance (BCSF) and Business Development Corporation of America (BDCA). Both are lenders in the first lien 2023 debt, with exposure of $32.4mn and $2.7mn of income at risk of interruption. At June 20219, both lenders had sharply discounted their loans (23%) and (27%). Yet, since then the market value has dropped even further: to a (30%) discount, as we write this on August 31, 2019.
It’s hard to envisage a scenario where some sort of loss does not occur given the amount of debt involved, but we’ll have to wait and see. We have a Corporate Credit Rating of 4. That’s our Worry List.
According to news reports, closely held NPC International – a major Pizza Hut franchisee – is getting ever closer to breaching a key financial covenant after reporting IIQ 2019 results.
“Total debt rose to 6.9 times a measure of earnings, just below the threshold that would trigger a default under the company’s revolver, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. The ratio stood at around 6.3 times in the first quarter”.
The only BDC with exposure – both first lien and second lien – is Bain Capital Specialty Finance (BCSF). Total cost is $14.2mn. There’s $1.2mn of income at risk should NPC file for bankruptcy. We placed the company on the under-performing list from the first quarter of 2019, when the second lien debt was written down by (13%). The second quarter discount is (39%) and the current market price is discounted (57%). Judging by the challenges facing the industry; the trend of the valuation and the latest market price, chances of a further downgrade – currently CCR 4 – to CCR 5 (non accrual) is high.
On June 13, 2019 Restaurant Business published an article summarizing many of the financial and operational challenges facing Wendy’s and Pizza Hut franchisee NPC International. Based on what we read, other research undertaken (including reading Moody’s recent downgrade of the Company and its debt) and after reviewing on Advantage Data the latest prices quoted for the first lien and second lien loans, the BDC Credit Reporter downgraded our outlook from CCR 3 to CCR 4 on our 5 point scale. There are two BDCs with exposure, almost all held by Bain Capital Specialty Finance (BCSF), with $14mn of loans in both first and second lien Term Loans. Read the Company File for our analysis of investment income at risk and the potential for realized and unrealized credit losses.